When the major stock market averages declined by 10% from their 2007 highs on Monday, we were in official market correction. Sentiment is negative owing to the economic back drop of, at best, tepid growth according to the Fed, or a recession.

 

Consumers twenty-five year credit binge fueled by home equity loans, credit cards arriving in the mail, subprime and adjustable rate mortgages and automobile leases, appears to be over. Savings rates has plummeted from 14% to 0% (perhaps to a negative number if home values continue to decline). Pile on top of that the banks debt problems, high energy prices, the homebuilding industry’s woes, weak retail sales and declining consumer sentiment, it’s no wonder that many investors believe a recession is in the offing.

Investors face two challenges right now. If the economy is headed into a recession, where do I put my money? And, if the economy avoids a recession will I be in the right investments? The stock market anticipates the future. It will decline prior to the US entering a recession and it will start going up prior to the end of the recession. Investors who wait for certainty that a recession has begun will be selling stocks at the worst possible time. The same logic holds true if you wait to buy stocks until after the economic recovery, the market will have already moved higher in anticipation. Human psychology is a future complication. We’re most optimistic about the stock market when it’s roaring ahead and most inclined to buy; and most pessimistic and most inclined to sell, when it’s at its bottom. Of course, our investment strategy should be just the opposite.  The moral to this story is that you should invest for the long term and not try to time the market. 

 

If a recession is imminent, the stock market will decline by another 10%. How do you make money? To get technical, buy mutual funds, ETFs and stocks with negative betas or high alphas, such as gold, commodities, real estate and foreign stocks. Gold and commodities already have had good runs, the US commercial real estate market appears to be weakening and foreign economies are increasingly becoming intertwined with ours. Non-investment grade bonds have good yields but are not the place to be given the continuing bank credit problems. High grade bonds and Treasures have relatively unattractive yields, particularly as you go out in maturity.

 

The best performing stocks in a recession are likely to be industry leaders, companies with strong overseas sales, consumer staples and health care. The technology sector is solid and internationally focused, so we’ll add it to our list. Essentially we’re looking at companies whose sales will be strong during a recession. These stocks may not go up in price during a recession but they will perform relatively better than most other equities and are safe investments. The bottom line is it’s hard to make money during a recession.

 

If the Fed is right and we’ll see modest economic growth in 2008, the markets are at their lows and could move 20% higher over the next six months. How do you position your investments for this possibility? By staying in the market and buying the same mutual funds, ETFs and stocks as you did for your recession portfolio. The recession portfolio is a conservative portfolio. Although it will miss some of the dramatic gains made by small cap and more violate stocks, it also protects you from the downside of those stocks while enabling you to participate in any stock market rally.

 

What to do now? Review your long term goals and make sure you’ve got the right asset mix, take losses (up to $3,000 more than your gains, remembering to match short term gains and losses) to minimize your taxes, reposition your equity investments according to our recession scenario, move your bonds into cash and tighten your seatbelt. We’re in for a bumpy ride.

Why could the U.S. be heading into a recession? The most likely reason is the housing market – a multi-faceted subject. There’s the new home building sector.  It’s important because it employs so many people, not just in construction but, by extension, in the industries that supply materials to the homebuilders – lumber, concrete, appliances, and even retailers like Home Depot. Think about all the “stuff’ that goes into a home and how much you buy when you move. A slowdown (or collapse) in new home building has a ripple effect throughout the economy and could drive up the unemployment rate. 

 

Housing market problems are not limited to new home sales. The value of your home and the market for sales of existing homes is falling. By how much and for how long is the big question. But the problem here is the equity we have in our homes is evaporating. Even worse, those of us who have recently purchased homes or have taken money out of our homes, through refinancing or home equity loans, may have no equity left. A reduction in home values reduces homeowners net worth, causing them to pull back on spending.

 

The mortgage market mess is the last, but the not least, of the housing market issues.   The big problem is not subprime mortgages, it’s adjustable rate mortgages. Bumps in mortgage payments due to contractual provisions or an increase due to a rising LIBOR rate – most mortgages are tied to this rate and it may rise even if interest rates fall in the U.S. – will force consumers to cut back spending in other areas.   Lastly, will more stringent lending standards exacerbate the new home construction and/or existing home value problems?

 

There are other economic concerns as well – consumer spending (beyond the impact of the housing market), rising energy prices, the U.S. balance of trade deficit (are jobs being exported as a result?) So, if you’re concerned about the possibility of a recession, and who shouldn’t be, how do you invest?

 

The stock market, according to classical wisdom (or folklore) anticipates a recession by six to nine months. Since it’s currently at record highs (at least the Dow and S&P) this suggests a recession is not in the offing. But the market could change direction at any time. There’s a saying that the stock market has predicted ten of the last five recessions.   So maybe it’s not such a perfect predictor after all. The stock market also anticipates economic recoveries.  Add to the mix the psychological difficulty of investing in stocks when things are the bleakest (the best time to buy) and it demonstrates the difficulty (impossibility, for most of us) of trying to time the market. 

 

Most investors should be in the stock market to take advantage of growth in principal value and income which comes through the long term ownership of equities. Stocks which do best in recessions are those of the strongest companies and companies whose products consumers must keeping buying (think toilet paper not cars). The stocks to focus on are big cap companies, consumer staple products and health care. There’s an overlap between many big cap stocks and consumer staples and health care companies. I’d also add to this list companies with significant international sales. (Did you know that a majority of McDonald’s, and many other U.S. companies, sales are overseas?) There’s also a substantial overlap between big cap and international sales. You can find many good mutual funds which focus on these areas.

 

Will this investment strategy provide a positive return during a recession? Not necessarily but it will keep you in the stock market with a minimum amount of risk and the long term investor will be well positioned if there is no recession or for the upturn in stocks after the recession occurs.

 

What about bonds, you ask.  Don’t they do well during a recession? Yes, if interest rates decline as a result, but that may be occurring just when stocks are beginning to rally again. With long term U.S. Treasuries yielding below 5% (some good money market accounts have higher yields) how much lower can interest rates go, so how much higher could bond prices go? Focus your risk-taking investments on the stock market and keep the rest of your capital in cash.